“Chick-fil-a is some good shit! Put some of them waffle fries on the sandwich with cheese & ketchup. Soooo good, make you wanna slap yo momma!”
-Channing Crowder
Sorry for the delay but here are the results from week 3 and doubly sorry for the font issues. To recap, I tried to create a model to predict NFL winners against the spread. Wojay and Kyle Kelly have been helping me to create data and last week we unveiled the first model. Also we made believe that we were starting with $1600 dollars with which to bet ($100 per game). Kyle Kelly calculated how much money we would be with at the end of the week if we bet according to model. For those who are just interested in how the model did, amazingly (and surprisingly) enough we ended up winning $373.33. Below is a table that displays the results. Me, Wojay and a Random Nebraskan also picked against the spread. The bolded column is the model prediction and highlighted cells are the predictions that the model got correct.
| Game | Spread | Predicted Difference | Model Prediction | Mike_Z | Wojay | Random Nebraskan | Actual Result |
| Patriots AT Bills | Pats by 8.5 | Bills by 0.15518 | Bills | Patriots | Bills | Patriots | Bills |
| Jaguars AT Panthers | Panthers by 3.5 | Panthers by 8.58 | Panthers | Jaguars | Panthers | Jaguars | Panthers |
| Broncos AT Titans | Titans by 6.5 | Broncos by .037 | Broncos | Broncos | Titans | Titans | Broncos |
| Giants AT Eagles | Eagles by 9 | Eagles by 6.27 | Giants | Eagles | Giants | Eagles | Giants |
| Texans AT Saints | Saints by 4 | Texans by 1.35 | Texans | Saints | Saints | Saints | Saints |
| Lions AT Vikings | Lions by 3.5 | Lions by 17.88 | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions | Vikings |
| Dolphins AT Browns | Browns by 2.5 | Browns by 6.29 | Browns | Dolphins | Browns | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| 49ers AT Bengals | Bengals by 3 | Bengals by 1.45 | 49ers | 49ers | Bengals | 49ers | 49ers |
| Jets AT Raiders | Jets by 3 | Raiders by 3.06 | Raiders | Jets | Jets | Raiders | Raiders |
| Ravens AT Rams | Ravens by 4 | Ravens by 9.74 | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| Chiefs AT Chargers | Chargers by 14.5 | Chargers by 15.03 | Chargers | Chiefs | Chargers | Chargers | Chiefs |
| Falcons AT Buccaneers | Bucs by 1.5 | Falcons by 3.38 | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Buccaneers |
| Cardinals AT Seahawks | Cardinals by 3.5 | Cardinals by 13.04 | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Seahawks |
| Packers AT Bears | Packers by 3.5 | Packers by 17.39 | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers |
| Steelers AT Colts | Steelers by 10.5 | Steelers by 7.88 | Colts | Steelers | Colts | Steelers | Colts |
| Redskins AT Dallas | Cowboys by 3 | Cowboys by 1.12 | Redskins | Cowboys | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins |
Below is a table that shows how each of us fared:
| Percent Right | Season Results | |
| Model Prediction | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| Mike_Z | 0.4375 | 0.4375 |
| Wojay | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Random Nebraskan | 0.4375 | 0.4375 |
As you can see, the model was correct on almost 63% of the games. If the model can hold this percentage, I will be beyond excited. On the other hand, you other three experts all lost money. Of course those reading this shouldn’t be surprised at me and Wojay’s results. As for the random Nebraskan, you have to remember this is a college football state.
As I said above, Kyle Kelly interpreted the money lines and came out with how much money the model won.
| Money | Total | |
| Starting | 1600 | |
| End Week 3 | 373.33 | 1973 |
Anyways, the predictions for week 4 will be posted either Friday or Saturday. If the model can keep up this performance, we may be on to something.
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