Week 4 Recap

I’m a fucking swaddling master. All the nurses compliment my swaddles. Get your swaddle game up you dads out there.

-Channing Crowder

Week 4 came and went and along with it, our second week of attempting to predict who will cover versus the NFL lines.  This week we introduced two models to accomplish this goal.  The first model was the same one used as last week.  As I’m sure everyone recalls, last week this model was correct on 62.5% of the games and would have ended up winning $370 (if you had bet $100 on every game).  Introduced this week, was a 2^nd model that mined the data to produce the highest adjusted R square.  The two models ended up disagreeing on three games: Browns-Titans, Dolphins-Chargers, and Jets-Ravens.  Below is how the two models did:

Game	Spread	M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Actual Result
Panthers AT Bears	Bears by 6	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Bears	Bears	Panthers
Bills AT Bengals	Bills by 3.5	Bills	Bills	Bills	Bills	Bills	Bengals
Titans AT Browns	Pick 'em	Browns	Titans	Browns	Browns	Titans	Titans
Lions AT Cowboys	Cowboys by 1.5	Lions	Lions	Lions	Lions	Lions	Lions
Steelers AT Texans	Texans by 4	Texans	Texans	Steelers	Texans	Steelers	Texans
Saints AT Jaguars	Saints by 7	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints
Vikings AT Chiefs	Vikings by 2	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Chiefs	Chiefs
49ers AT Eagles	Eagles by 9	49ers	49ers	49ers	Eagles	Eagles	49ers
Redskins AT Rams	Redskins by 2	Redskins	Redskins	Rams	Rams	Redskins	Redskins
Giants AT Cardinals	Giants by 1	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants
Falcons AT Seahawks	Falcons by 4.5	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Seahwaks
Broncos AT Packers	Packers by 12.5	Packers	Packers	Broncos	Packers	Packers	Packers
Patriots AT Raiders	Patriots by 4	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Raiders	Patriots
Dolphins AT Chargers	Chargers by 7	Dolphins	Chargers	Dolphins	Dolphins	Chargers	Chargers
Jets AT Ravens	Ravens by 3.5	Jets	Ravens	Jets	Ravens	Jets	Ravens
Colts AT Buccaneers	Buccaneers by 10	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Buccaneers	Colts

As you can see both models did very well.  The first model ended up correctly predicting 10 out of 16 games to do exactly as well as last week (62.5%) and winning back another $370 dollars.  Through two weeks this model has ended up making over $700 dollars.  However, the 2^nd model exceeded all expectations by correctly predicting 13 out of 16 games (81.3%) and winning $881.83.  That is a phenomenal return.  However, we can’t assume that this model will continue being this accurate.  What may be even more encouraging is that the 1^st model maintained it’s accuracy through two weeks.

	Percent Right	Season Results
Mike Z	0.4375	0.4375
Wojay	0.5	0.5
Kyle Kelly	0.5	0.5
Model 1	0.625	0.625
Model 2	0.8125	0.8125

As you can see in the season results, everyone basically repeated their performance.  Kyle Kelly and Model 2 were added this week.  Meanwhile, me, Wojay and the 1^st model did exactly the same.  Through two weeks, I’ve correctly predicted 14 out of 32 games, Wojay 16, and Model 1 has predicted 20. 

	Model 1	Model 2
Starting	1600	1600
Week 3	1973.33	.
Week 4	2346.66	2481.83

As you can see, both models have made money through 2 weeks.  Let’s hope this pattern continues!