Week 5 Predictions

I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person. If you’re confused, then I'm talking to you !!!!

-Channing Crowder

It’s the third week of predicting against the spread and another step towards seeking validation for this process.  Like last week, we will be using two competing models and then picks by our experts: me, Wojay, Kyle Kelly, and a Random Nebraskan.  As a reminder, the first model has been used for the last two weeks and has predicted 62.5% of the spreads correctly.  It uses the following variables:

1.      Rushing attempts

2.      Pass Completion Percentage

3.      Rushing Touchdowns

4.      Passing Touchdowns

5.      Turn-overs

6.      Spread

Week by week the adjusted R square for this model has been getting worse, dropping from .82 in the first week to .74 this week.  However, being correct 62.5% of the time will make you money.

The 2^nd model is the result of straight data mining.  I plug every offensive variable into a model selection program and select the one with the highest adjusted R square.  Last week, this resulted in a model that correctly picked 13 out of 16 games.  While I am slightly (OK very) skeptical of this level of accuracy, it makes sense to try the same process again.  So in the spirit of violating academic standards, here are the variables used for the 2^nd model:

1.      Rushing 1^st downs

2.      Red Zone Efficiency

3.      Rushing Attempts

4.      Rushing Touchdowns

5.      Fumbles Lost

6.      Pass Attempts

7.      Pas Yards

8.      Passing Touchdowns

9.      Interceptions

10.  Sacks

11.  Other Touchdowns

This model had an adjusted R square of .89.  However, this model could be improved by combining variables and using common sense to trim unrealistic coefficient estimates.  But, I have a thesis to write and other projects that, hopefully, will help me get a real job someday, so I didn’t have time to fully explore this model.  Anyways, below are the predictions:

·         Eagles AT Bills (Eagles by 3)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Bills	Bills	Eagles	Eagles	Bills	Eagles

Wojay Wonders:  Kyle Kelly needs to enter his data.

·         Saints AT Panthers (Saints by 6.5)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Saints	Saints	Panthers	Saints	Panthers	Saints

Wojay Wonders:  Why does Cam Newton makes me a little hard.

·         Raiders AT Texans (Texans by 6)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders

Wojay Wonders:  R.I.P Al Davis

·         Chiefs AT Colts (Colts by 2)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Chiefs	Colts	Chiefs	Colts	Chiefs	Chiefs

Wojay Wonders:  Is this the battle for Andrew Luck?

·         Bengals AT Jaguars (Jaguars by 2)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals

Wojay Wonders:  Red Rocket! Red Rocket! Red Rocket!

·         Cardinals AT Vikings (Vikings by 3)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals	Vikings	Cardinals	Cardinals

Wojay Wonders:  McNabb was good once, right?

·         Seahawks AT Giants (Giants by 9.5)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Seahawks	Giants	Seahawks	Giants	Giants	Seahawks

Wojay Wonders:  Why don’t I write all my own thoughts?

·         Dolphins AT Bye (Bye by 3)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Bye	Bye	Dolphins	Bye	Bye	Bye

Mike Z thoughts: At least they win this one…

·         Titans AT Steelers (Steelers by 3)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Titans	Titans	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers

Wojay Wonders:  Hasselback for MVP….but I’ll pick the Steelers anyways.

·         Buccaneers AT 49ers (49ers by 3)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Buccaneers	Buccaneers	49ers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers

Wojay Wonders:  Have you ever seen LaGaurette Blount fight?

·         Chargers AT Broncos (Chargers by 4)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Broncos	Broncos	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers

Wojay Wonders:  San Diego:  it means a whale’s vagina.

·         Jets AT Patriots (Patriots by 9)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Jets	Jets	Patriots

Wojay Wonders:  Sometimes I’m just not funny.

·         Packers at Falcons (Packers by 6.5)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Packers	Packers	Falcons	Falcons	Packers	Packers

Wojay Wonders:  Dirty Bird!!!

·         Bears at Lions (Lions by 5)

M1 Prediction	M2 Prediction	Mike_Z	Wojay	Kyle Kelly	Random Nebraskan
Lions	Lions	Lions	Lions	Bears	Lions

Wojay Wonders:  Detroit fans are having memories of 1957…

So there are you predictions.  The two models differ only in the Chiefs-Colts game and Seahawks-Giants game.  Meanwhile, our experts show a lot more variability and that is reflected in how poor our picks have been.